Fire Watches

Storm Prediction Center
Fire Watches

Fire Weather Forecasts

NOAA / National Weather Service
National Centers for Environmental Prediction
Storm Prediction Center

• SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook

  Posted 40 seconds ago

  SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook DAY 2 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0453 AM CDT THU SEP 09 2010 VALID 101200Z - 111200Z …CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR FAR SERN WY/N-CNTRL CO/SWRN NEB PANHANDLE… …SYNOPSIS… AN UPPER-LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH OVER THE NRN HIGH PLAINS WILL SHIFT E/NEWD ACROSS THE SRN CANADIAN PRAIRIE PROVINCES AND THE NRN PLAINS. PRIMARY SURFACE CYCLONE WILL MOVE NWD AND OCCLUDE ACROSS SRN MANITOBA…WHILE AN ATTENDANT COLD FRONT PROGRESSES EWD ACROSS THE NRN/CNTRL PLAINS. …FAR SERN WY/N-CNTRL CO/SWRN NEB PANHANDLE… MARGINAL TO LOCALIZED LOW-END CRITICAL CONDITIONS SHOULD DEVELOP FRI ALONG THE LEE OF THE FRONT RANGE IN SERN WY/N-CNTRL CO EWD INTO THE NEB PANHANDLE. LOCALLY GUSTY WLY WINDS MAY BE ONGOING AT 12Z/FRI ACROSS THE FOOTHILLS. THE 06Z NAM REMAINS THE MOST BULLISH OPERATIONAL MODEL IN TEMPORAL EXTENT AND MAGNITUDE OF LOW-LEVEL FLOW LATE DAY 1. HOWEVER…IT DOES DEPICT AT LEAST FAIR RH RECOVERY OCCURRING FRI MORNING WHICH SUGGESTS THE PROBABILITY OF ONGOING CRITICAL CONDITIONS TO BE LOW. AS DAYTIME HEATING ENSUES…A DEEPENING MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER WILL POTENTIALLY SUPPORT MORE WIDESPREAD GUSTS TO REACH THE SURFACE. NEVERTHELESS…CONSENSUS OF MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES LOW/MID-LEVEL FLOW WILL WEAKEN THROUGH THE DAY. SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS SHOULD AVERAGE AROUND 15 TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS OF 30 TO 40 MPH ACROSS SERN WY INTO NEB PANHANDLE AND EXTREME NRN CO…WHERE AFTERNOON RH VALUES SHOULD BECOME MARGINALLY LOW /FROM 15 TO … [more]
  

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• SPC Sep 9, 2010 Day 4-8 Convective Outlook

  Posted 71 minutes ago

  Day 4-8 Outlook DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0348 AM CDT THU SEP 09 2010 VALID 121200Z - 171200Z …DISCUSSION… 00Z ECMWF/GEFS CONTINUE TO REFLECT A NEARLY ZONAL/LOW AMPLITUDE LARGE SCALE REGIME INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK…ALTHOUGH GUIDANCE DISCREPANCIES BEGIN TO EXIST BY MID WEEK. THIS IS MAINLY DUE TO INDICATIONS OF AN INCREASINGLY AMPLIFIED PATTERN /LARGELY VIA AN EASTERN STATES TROUGH/ PER 00Z GEFS/DETERMINISTIC GFS…WHEREAS THE 00Z ECMWF REMAINS MORE ZONAL THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. REGARDLESS…LIMITED POTENTIAL AND PREDICTABILITY…GIVEN THE INITIALLY LOW AMPLITUDE NATURE OF THE LARGE SCALE REGIME…PRECLUDE CONSIDERATION OF ANY SEVERE RISK AREAS. Read more [more]
  

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• SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook

  Posted 71 minutes ago

  SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0343 AM CDT THU SEP 09 2010 VALID 091200Z - 101200Z …CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF WY…NWRN/N-CNTRL CO… …CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF NERN AZ…FOUR CORNERS… …SYNOPSIS… A POTENT UPPER-LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH OVER THE WRN GREAT BASIN WILL EJECT NEWD…REACHING THE NRN/CNTRL ROCKIES BY LATE EVENING. AT THE SURFACE…LEE CYCLOGENESIS WILL OCCUR ACROSS NRN HIGH PLAINS…WITH AN ATTENDANT COLD FRONT DRAPED SWWD THROUGH THE ERN GREAT BASIN THIS AFTERNOON. IN THE EAST…AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW WILL REMAIN ANCHORED OVER NRN NEW ENGLAND. …PORTIONS OF WY…NWRN/N-CNTRL CO… A BELT OF INTENSE MID-LEVEL SWLYS /65 TO 75 MPH AT 500 MB/ WILL OVERSPREAD THE ERN GREAT BASIN AND CNTRL ROCKIES BY NOON IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE WRN CONUS UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH. THIS WILL HELP SHIFT RICHER SUB-TROPICAL MOISTURE E OF THE CNTRL ROCKIES…WITH A CORRIDOR OF DEEP VERTICAL MIXING DEVELOPING IN ITS WAKE FROM NWRN CO ACROSS CNTRL/ERN WY. THIS MIXING SHOULD LEAD TO VERY STRONG SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS OF 25 TO 35 MPH AT PEAK HEATING…WITH GUSTS OF 45 TO 60 MPH PROBABLE. DESPITE SUBSTANTIAL DRYING…RH VALUES SHOULD ONLY BECOME MARGINALLY LOW /AROUND 12 TO 20 PERCENT/. HOWEVER…GIVEN THE STRENGTH OF THE WINDS…LOCALIZED EXTREMELY CRITICAL CONDITIONS MAY OCCUR. ALONG THE FOOTHILLS OF THE FRONT RANGE…A PERIOD OF STRONG GUSTY WLYS APPEARS LIKELY TO DEVELOP DURING THE EVENING. LA … [more]
  

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• SPC - No watches are valid as of Thu Sep 9 10:43:21 UTC 2010

  Posted 4 hours ago

  No watches are valid as of Thu Sep 9 10:43:21 UTC 2010. [more]
  

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• SPC - No MDs are in effect as of Thu Sep 9 10:43:21 UTC 2010

  Posted 5 hours ago

  No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Thu Sep 9 10:43:21 UTC 2010. [more]
  

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